Impact of Rural Voters in Arizona’s Presidential Elections
Rural voters have consistently played an essential role in shaping Arizona’s political landscape. More often than not, attention focuses on highly populated urban areas like Phoenix and Tucson when, in reality, the voices of rural Arizonans can very well be the deciding factor.

Demographics and Influence

To understand what matters to people in rural communities, we can look at Native Americans as an example. Native Americans tend to prioritize concerns such as water rights, land use, agriculture, and access to healthcare—issues that may not be as prominent in urban settings. Candidates who understand and address these unique needs can garner significant support.

The Rural-Urban Divide

In recent elections, Arizona has seen a growing political divide between its urban and rural areas, with rural voters leaning more conservative. Currently, Arizona is deemed a battleground state, otherwise known as a “swing state.” This is a state where both major political parties have similar levels of support among voters. The outcome of elections in these states is uncertain and highly contested, making it crucial for candidates to win there to achieve overall victory. Understanding and addressing this divide is critical for any campaign to secure a win in the state.

Case Studies: Past Elections

The 2020 presidential election in Arizona offers a clear example of the impact rural voters can have. According to the official state canvass, while urban areas like Maricopa County leaned Democratic, many of Arizona’s rural counties provided a strong base of support for the Republican candidate. When we look deeper, we see that counties like Mohave, Gila, and Yavapai reported overwhelming majorities for the Republican ticket, with margins exceeding 70% in some areas. Despite the overall shift that led Arizona to swing Democratic in 2020, the rural vote demonstrated its power to solidify Republican strongholds, showcasing the critical balance rural voters provide in statewide outcomes.

Turnout and Mobilization

Throughout the years, rural voters in Arizona have shown strong turnout rates, often surpassing their urban counterparts. This high engagement level can contribute to a strong sense of community and civic duty. Mobilization efforts in these areas can have a significant impact. For example, Grassroots campaigns focusing on meeting people face-to-face are an excellent way to connect with rural voters. (Grassroots campaigns are for-profit corporations that do strategic consulting and fundraising for humanitarian and progressive causes and political organizations.)

Call to Action

Rural voters are a key demographic that cannot be overlooked in a state as politically diverse as Arizona. Their impact on presidential elections is profound, and successful candidates must tailor their messaging and outreach efforts to resonate with these communities. As Arizona continues to be a critical swing state, understanding and engaging with rural voters will remain essential for any campaign looking to secure victory. To learn more about how to help candidates in your state, visit Matters Of State Strategies.